Station-day forecast error (WAPE — rides missed per 100 actual rides) as the forecast horizon stretches from tomorrow to 90 days out. Citi Bike NYC, ~1,480 stations, test year Jun 2025 – May 2026; shaded bands are 95% bootstrap intervals over forecast origins.
† = fed the target day's actual weather — a fair stand-in for a forecast at 1 day, pure clairvoyance at 90. "Last-year analog" is not a model: it is the average of the same weekday 51/52/53 weeks earlier — and no entrant restricted to honestly available information ever significantly beat it at 90 days. The overall champion is the 50/50 blend of the doped tree and doped Chronos-2: zero extra training, best at every horizon.